Chuantou Energy (600674) 2019 Annual Results Express Commentary-Yalongjiang Electricity Price Risk Release Full Long-term Value Is Still Outstanding

Chuantou Energy (600674) 2019 Annual Results Express Commentary-Yalongjiang Electricity Price Risk Release Full Long-term Value Is Still Outstanding

The company’s senior management realized statutory auditing and net profit attributable to the mother29.

300 million, slightly lower than expected, the core asset Yalongjiang company’s electricity price accrual is the main cause of drag.

At present, Yalongjiang’s electricity price risk 深圳桑拿网 release has been relatively sufficient, and from the perspective of cash flow, the long-term value impact of electricity price adjustment can be controlled.

The Yalong River hydropower assets are scarce and the company is estimated to have a safety margin. Benefiting from the long-term decline in domestic interest rates, it maintains a “Buy” rating with a target price of 12.

40 yuan.

Initial performance is 0.

67 yuan, slightly lower than expected.

The company achieved revenue in 20198.

300 million US dollars (according to the audit, the same below), exceeding the period 3.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 29.

3 ‰, a ten-year average of 17.

9%, converted to basic earnings per share of 0.

67 yuan.

Preliminary results were slightly lower than expected.

Looking at the quarterly results, Q4’s net profit attributable to its parent2.

99 million yuan, down 62 in ten years.

6%.

Yalongjiang Electricity Price Accrual Company dragged down performance.

Holding wind power 32.

300 million kilowatt-hours, the average electricity price is 0.

20 yuan / kWh, stable business performance.

Yalongjiang Co., Ltd., which has a 48% stake, has 747 years of power generation.

300 million kWh (+0.

8%); the conventional average on-grid tariff including tax is 0.

25 yuan / kWh (-9.

1%), electricity price accrual using Yalongjiang company’s scale net profit fell 17.
.

5%, the main reason for the company’s performance.

2019Q1?
In Q4, the average electricity price of Yalongjiang Company changed by -14.

3% / 1.

6% /-7.

5% /-14.

2%.

The electricity price risk is relatively adequately released, and its impact on long-term value is controllable.

According to our calculations, from the perspective of cash flow, the net cash flow of Yalongjiang’s operating activities in 2019 decreased by about 10%, which significantly exceeded its simultaneous decline in profits. From the perspective of discounted cash flow, the price adjustment of electricity to the company’s core assetsThe intrinsic value influence can be controlled.

In addition, after this electricity price accrual, Yalongjiang’s electricity price risk has been released.

Investment in Yalong River is declining, and the amount of supportable funds has increased significantly.
The construction of the Yalong River Company’s midstream power station progressed smoothly, and the first unit was put into operation in 2021.

2014?
In 2018, the company’s additional investment in Yalongjiang Company accounted for 69% of the dividends received from Yalongjiang Company, which seriously caused the company’s dividend capacity.
At present, the capital investment stage of Yazhong’s power plant under construction is nearing completion. In the first three quarters of 2019, the company paid Yalongjiang’s investment funds7.

68 ppm, a reduction of 3 per year.

At 8.4 billion, discretionary funds are increasing.

Risk factors: intensified fluctuations in electricity prices; incoming water exceeds expectations; the progress of Yazhong units, and the rate of return exceeds expected investment recommendations: We will be in 2019?
In 2021, the electricity price of Yalong River will be reduced by 5.

4%?
9.

0% and 苏州桑拿网 correspondingly the company 2019?
EPS forecast for 2021 is down 7.

0%?
9.

6% to 0.

67/0.

67/0.

74 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 15/15/13 times.

We believe that the company’s core assets are highly scarce, it is estimated that there is a margin of safety, the interest rate continues to fall, maintain the “Buy” rating, and maintain the target price of 12.

40 yuan