Changyuan Power (000966): Q3 results continue to grow, waiting for Haojili to release

Changyuan Power (000966): Q3 results continue to grow, waiting for Haojili to release
The performance is in line with expectations, maintaining a “buy” rating of 1-9M19 companies returning to the parent net profit up and down + 178%?237%, in line with expectations, the main reason is the high growth in power generation + coal prices down, 19Q3 company’s power generation / electricity sales were 55.7/52.200 million kWh, +14 per year.7% / 14.8%, the third quarter of the sustained high growth of electricity is mainly due to strong demand for electricity + hydropower squeeze out the improvement and weakening.Considering the continued improvement in power generation, an increase of 19?The net profit attributable to the mother for 21 years is 6.0/7.9/8.400 million (previous value: 4).6/7.8/8.300 million), the BPS in 19-21 is expected to be 3.61/4.19/4.76 yuan (previous value: 3).48/4.08/4.65 yuan), considering that the commissioning of the Haoji Railway will help to improve the performance, given 1 in 19 years.6-1.8x target PB, target price 5.77-6.49 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Q3 power generation +14 per second.7%, mainly due to the advent of the dry season of hydropower + high demand for electricity consumption According to the company’s announcement, the company completed 19Q3 electricity generation / grid electricity 55.7/52.200 million kWh, +14 from the same period last year.7% / 14.8%, we believe that the main reason for the sustained high growth of Q3 electricity is the strong demand for electricity + the improvement and weakening of the hydropower squeeze effect. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 7-8M19 Hubei’s entire society’s electricity / hydropower generation volume is at least +6.8% /-16.5%.According to our calculations, the utilization hours of the thermal power units of the 19Q1-3 company are about 3978 hours, of which 19Q1 / 19Q2 / 19Q3 are 1507/932/1539 hours, which are respectively increased by 284/61/199 hours.We judge that the high growth trend of Hubei electricity is expected to continue in the future, and the utilization hour for 2019/20 is appropriately raised to 5132/5182 (previous value: 4812/4862). Q3 performance is in line with expectations, the company is expected to fully benefit from the decline in coal prices in the future According to the company’s announcement, 1-9M19 company’s net profit attributable to the mother gradually increased + 178%?237%, the performance is in line with expectations, mainly due to the high growth in power generation + coal prices fell.According to the data of the National Development and Reform Commission, the average price of Hubei Electric Coal in 7-8M19 is 590 yuan / ton, and the average price of 18Q3 / 19Q2 changed from -46 / -8 yuan / ton (vs. Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal 7-8M19 average price of 588 yuan / ton)., Earlier 18Q3 / 19Q2 changes -45 / -21 yuan / ton)无锡夜网, Hubei coal prices are high due to limited coal resources + inconvenience of transportation, we judge that Hubei is expected to benefit from the operation of Haoji Railway in the future + domestic coal supply and demand tends to be looseWith the positive, coal prices are expected to continue to fall. The Haoji Railway was officially opened to traffic and began to focus on significantly reducing the company’s fuel costs in 2020. According to information disclosed by Xinhua News Agency, the Haoji Railway had been opened before the National Day. Although the final transportation pricing was higher than market expectations, we believe that the Haoji Railway is expected to significantly increase Central China.Coal supply, and driving the “Sanxi” coal transportation in Hubei shortened from more than one month to 1-3 days, which helped local coal cost control.The company’s pure coal power properties are expected to fully benefit from the decline in coal prices in the future. According to our calculations, if the Q5500 spot price of Qingang Q10 is -10 yuan / ton, the company’s coal price is expected to be -12.4 yuan / ton, driving the return of net profit to mothers in 2019-20 by 552.556.36 million yuan, an increase of 12% / 7%. We raise our profit forecast and give a “Buy” rating. Considering that the power generation continues to improve, we raise it by 19?The net profit attributable to the mother for 21 years is 6.0/7.9/8.400 million (previous value: 4).6/7.8/8.3 ‰), the corresponding EPS is 0.55/0.72/0.76 yuan (previous value: 0.42/0.70/0.75 yuan), BPS is 3.61/4.19/4.76 yuan (previous value: 3).48/4.08/4.65 yuan). Current routine corresponds to 19?21 years P / E is 9/7 / 7x and P / B is 1.4/1.2/1.1x.Reference comparable company 19-year average P / B1.2x, considering that the commissioning of the Haoji Railway will help drive better performance, giving the company 19 years.6-1.8x target PB, target price 5.77-6.49 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: coal prices go up, electricity prices are adjusted, and incoming water squeezes thermal power utilization hours.