Changyuan Power (000966): Q3 results continue to grow, waiting for Haojili to release

Changyuan Power (000966): Q3 results continue to grow, waiting for Haojili to release
The performance is in line with expectations, maintaining a “buy” rating of 1-9M19 companies returning to the parent net profit up and down + 178%?237%, in line with expectations, the main reason is the high growth in power generation + coal prices down, 19Q3 company’s power generation / electricity sales were 55.7/52.200 million kWh, +14 per year.7% / 14.8%, the third quarter of the sustained high growth of electricity is mainly due to strong demand for electricity + hydropower squeeze out the improvement and weakening.Considering the continued improvement in power generation, an increase of 19?The net profit attributable to the mother for 21 years is 6.0/7.9/8.400 million (previous value: 4).6/7.8/8.300 million), the BPS in 19-21 is expected to be 3.61/4.19/4.76 yuan (previous value: 3).48/4.08/4.65 yuan), considering that the commissioning of the Haoji Railway will help to improve the performance, given 1 in 19 years.6-1.8x target PB, target price 5.77-6.49 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Q3 power generation +14 per second.7%, mainly due to the advent of the dry season of hydropower + high demand for electricity consumption According to the company’s announcement, the company completed 19Q3 electricity generation / grid electricity 55.7/52.200 million kWh, +14 from the same period last year.7% / 14.8%, we believe that the main reason for the sustained high growth of Q3 electricity is the strong demand for electricity + the improvement and weakening of the hydropower squeeze effect. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 7-8M19 Hubei’s entire society’s electricity / hydropower generation volume is at least +6.8% /-16.5%.According to our calculations, the utilization hours of the thermal power units of the 19Q1-3 company are about 3978 hours, of which 19Q1 / 19Q2 / 19Q3 are 1507/932/1539 hours, which are respectively increased by 284/61/199 hours.We judge that the high growth trend of Hubei electricity is expected to continue in the future, and the utilization hour for 2019/20 is appropriately raised to 5132/5182 (previous value: 4812/4862). Q3 performance is in line with expectations, the company is expected to fully benefit from the decline in coal prices in the future According to the company’s announcement, 1-9M19 company’s net profit attributable to the mother gradually increased + 178%?237%, the performance is in line with expectations, mainly due to the high growth in power generation + coal prices fell.According to the data of the National Development and Reform Commission, the average price of Hubei Electric Coal in 7-8M19 is 590 yuan / ton, and the average price of 18Q3 / 19Q2 changed from -46 / -8 yuan / ton (vs. Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal 7-8M19 average price of 588 yuan / ton)., Earlier 18Q3 / 19Q2 changes -45 / -21 yuan / ton)无锡夜网, Hubei coal prices are high due to limited coal resources + inconvenience of transportation, we judge that Hubei is expected to benefit from the operation of Haoji Railway in the future + domestic coal supply and demand tends to be looseWith the positive, coal prices are expected to continue to fall. The Haoji Railway was officially opened to traffic and began to focus on significantly reducing the company’s fuel costs in 2020. According to information disclosed by Xinhua News Agency, the Haoji Railway had been opened before the National Day. Although the final transportation pricing was higher than market expectations, we believe that the Haoji Railway is expected to significantly increase Central China.Coal supply, and driving the “Sanxi” coal transportation in Hubei shortened from more than one month to 1-3 days, which helped local coal cost control.The company’s pure coal power properties are expected to fully benefit from the decline in coal prices in the future. According to our calculations, if the Q5500 spot price of Qingang Q10 is -10 yuan / ton, the company’s coal price is expected to be -12.4 yuan / ton, driving the return of net profit to mothers in 2019-20 by 552.556.36 million yuan, an increase of 12% / 7%. We raise our profit forecast and give a “Buy” rating. Considering that the power generation continues to improve, we raise it by 19?The net profit attributable to the mother for 21 years is 6.0/7.9/8.400 million (previous value: 4).6/7.8/8.3 ‰), the corresponding EPS is 0.55/0.72/0.76 yuan (previous value: 0.42/0.70/0.75 yuan), BPS is 3.61/4.19/4.76 yuan (previous value: 3).48/4.08/4.65 yuan). Current routine corresponds to 19?21 years P / E is 9/7 / 7x and P / B is 1.4/1.2/1.1x.Reference comparable company 19-year average P / B1.2x, considering that the commissioning of the Haoji Railway will help drive better performance, giving the company 19 years.6-1.8x target PB, target price 5.77-6.49 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: coal prices go up, electricity prices are adjusted, and incoming water squeezes thermal power utilization hours.

Kodali (002850): Leader of battery structural components is deeply bound to the top ten domestic battery manufacturers

Kodali (002850): Leader of battery structural components is deeply bound to the top ten domestic battery manufacturers
This report reads: The new energy automobile industry has entered a boom cycle. As the leader of lithium battery structural parts, the company is the core supplier of the top ten power battery manufacturers in China, and its future growth is expected.The first coverage is given an “overweight” rating with a target price of 102.70 yuan. Key points of investment: The first time we give an “overweight” rating with a target price of 102.70 yuan.The market believes that the company’s products are metal structural parts, and the industry has insufficient growth, but we believe that from the analysis of downstream customers, the company is the core supplier of the top ten power battery manufacturers in China.Into the rapid growth period.It is estimated that the revenue for 2019-2021 will be 23 respectively.84, 35.95, 51.480,000 yuan, net profit 2.28, 3.32, 4.71 ppm, corresponding to EPS of 1.08, 1.58,2.24 yuan.Given a target price of 102.70 yuan, corresponding to 65 times PE in 2020 (comparable companies average 64.92 times), the first coverage given the “overweight” rating. Leading companies in lithium battery structural parts have maintained rapid 武汉夜网论坛 growth.The company’s products mainly include lithium battery structural parts and automotive structural parts, with lithium battery structural parts as the core (2018 revenue accounted for 77%.85%), customers include CATL, Panasonic, LG, BYD and other major battery manufacturers. The company’s performance has grown rapidly, with 2018 revenue and net profit of 20 respectively.00, 0.8.2 billion, 2011-2018 revenue and net profit CAGR were 23 respectively.98%, 18.65%.At the same time, the company has a nationwide layout, responding quickly to local customers, increasing investment in research and development, and continually consolidating its leading position. New energy vehicles entered the boom cycle, and the company actively expanded its production to meet industry dividends.Driven by policies and auto companies represented by Tesla, global new energy vehicles have entered the boom cycle. It is estimated that global new energy vehicle sales will exceed 13 million by 2025.The compound annual growth rate will reach 31 in 2025.01%.At the same time, the domestic market GGII is expected to reach 6.23 million units in 2025. 2019?2025 compound annual growth rate of 31.48%, also maintained rapid growth.The demand for power batteries from new energy vehicles has doubled, and the long-term demand for upstream battery metal structural components has also continued to increase (the vehicle cost ratio).41%), the company actively expands production and welcomes industry dividends. Catalyst: policy incentives, Tesla releases new products, new energy vehicle sales risk warning: new energy vehicle sales are less than expected; policy withdrawal

Slow Bull market is quietly coming, multiple technology stocks selected for August brokerage gold stocks

Slow Bull market is quietly coming, multiple technology stocks selected for August brokerage gold stocks

A number of technology stocks were selected for the August gold brokerage consumer sector and industry leaders in August. Sources were generally optimistic. Source: Wang Siwen, a reporter from the Securities Daily, converted the science and technology board to open.

  At the time of August’s approach, the merger institutions announced their investment strategies, and it was generally believed that technology stocks were ready for deployment opportunities.

In addition, there are securities companies that have selected multiple technology stocks for August gold stocks.

  The slow bull market may come quietly on July 29. Zhang Yulong, chief strategy analyst of CITIC Construction Investment Securities, stated that starting from July 23, the market has grown slowly and the style has changed significantly.

From an industry perspective, the electronics, communications, computer and other technology industries have gradually started to rise through profit improvement.

From the perspective of estimates, the market and industry estimates are below the median, and stock assets have a good price-performance ratio.

  Zhang Yulong’s team 武汉夜网论坛 believes that the slow cattle market is coming quietly, and electronics, computers, communications and other growth sectors will lead the upward trend.

Investors are advised to upgrade their equity asset positions and switch from the food and beverage industry with a stagnation environment configuration to the growth sectors with improved performance in electronics, computers, and communications, and grasp the golden autumn market in the third quarter.

  Southwest Securities analyst Zhu Bin also believes that growth stocks have a comparative advantage in the second half of the year, and investors need to seize opportunities in stages.

  UBS Securities has a different perspective.

Recently, the UBS Securities China Equity Strategy Team stated that it is cautiously optimistic about the A-share market under the slackening of economic system and policies.

It is recommended to continue to overweight the consumer sector and industry leaders. Large-cap stocks may continue to outperform small-cap stocks.

  Individual technology stocks are favored by brokers and will enter August, and gold stocks of brokers will also be released one after another.

On July 29, Lianxun Securities took the lead in releasing the top ten gold stock portfolios in August, namely: Zhifei Bio, ZTE, Changan Automobile, SF Holdings, China Railway Construction, Guanglianda, Hang Seng Electronics, Guangwei ComplexZhongmin Energy and Lansi Technology.

It is not rough, there are multiple electronic and pharmaceutical bio-sector stocks in this list of top ten gold stock combinations.

  In fact, the beginning of the 5G era has almost become the few consensus in the current market.

The investment opportunities brought by 5G have also attracted much attention from investors.

Recently, changes in many aspects of the market have been changed, and the organization has continued to focus on the technology sector again, and reached a consensus on the recent investment and allocation of technology stocks.

  The Minsheng Securities Research Institute issued its latest opinion on July 29, optimistic about the rebound of technology stocks. It is recommended to focus on the semiconductor, consumer electronics, Internet of Things and cloud computing sectors.

  Minsheng Securities analyst Yang Liu expressed this view from four aspects.

Yang Liu believes that, first, from the perspective of the technology cycle, the annual growth rate of domestic smartphone distribution in the first half of 2019 has gradually narrowed. The 5G replacement wave will make use of the consumer electronics industry chain in a long-term boom cycle.

Secondly, the prosperity of the technology industry continued to improve, and the performance of growth stocks in the second half of the year is expected to improve significantly.

Third, the market attention of a large number of technology stocks has decreased, and the attention of non-core assets is at a reduced level. The stock selection income may be considerable.

Fourth, the transaction scale of the growth sector has now increased. The proportion of active management cemetery funds on the Growth Enterprise Market and growth industries has fallen to 2013 levels.

Dataport (603881): Regaining Ali’s demand intention letter to lay a solid foundation for growth

Dataport (603881): Regaining Ali’s demand intention letter to lay a solid foundation for growth

Re-approval of Ali’s demand intention letter was confirmed. The basic company issued an announcement on the evening of December 2nd and obtained the Ali data center demand intention letter again. If all of this intention project is completed and delivered to operation, the company expects to complete the operation period (contract contract server)) For 10 years) The total amount of data center service fees (excluding electricity service fees) will reach 24.

4 billion.

We believe that if 上海夜网论坛 this demand intention involves the successful landing of related projects, it will further strengthen the company’s long-term growth foundation.

With the continuous construction and delivery of Ali-related data centers, we expect the company to
The 21-year EBITDA is 3.

79/5.

18/7.

7.5 billion, considering the company 19?
21-year EBITDA 32.

8% compound growth rate, we give the company 2020 EV / EBITDA 20x?
23x, corresponding to a target price of 39.

10 yuan?
46.

46 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level.

The company is a long-term partner of Alibaba Data Center. The cooperation between the company and Alibaba dates back to the beginning of 2009. After listing, the company has successfully completed the operation and maintenance of Alibaba’s data center during the Double Eleven times, and has been recognized by customers.

In May 2018, the company received a letter of intent from Alibaba and cooperated to build data centers such as ZH13.

This time, the company received the letter of intent for Ali’s new data center demand again. We think that it shows Ali’s affirmation of the continuous high-quality service of Dataport for many years.

The letter of intent for this demand involves new requirements for multiple cloud computing data centers such as JN13, GH13, HB33.

In terms of income settlement, Alibaba directly allocates electricity to the department. According to the announcement, the company expects that after the project is put into operation, the revenue can be increased by about 24 within 10 years.

4 trillion (excluding electricity service fee).

Capex continues to improve and break through the foundation for growth. We believe that with regard to the basic data center business, customer needs are relatively determined. The growth of the business mainly comes from the expansion of scale. Capital expenditure is a leading indicator of the company’s business growth.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s capital expenditure continued to increase sequentially, and Capex was 1 in each quarter.

97/3.

71/5.

2.3 billion, we believe that continuous capital expenditure will continue to lay a solid foundation for the company’s growth.

The 5G curtain opens and cloudization brings new opportunities, Promote the continued improvement of the prosperity of the IDC industry.

In addition, the integration of cloud computing and networks in the 5G era is gradually deepening, and the penetration rate of cloud computing may further increase.

And ISP manufacturers 南宁桑拿 are based on the new application’s forward-looking layout and the dynamic adjustment of competition strategies under the changing competitive landscape, focusing on infrastructure investment.

In the medium and long term, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the development of 5G and cloud computing on the demand side.

Investment suggestion We believe that the company has received Ali’s letter of intent again, showing Ali’s affirmation of Dataport’s continuous high-quality service for many years.

We expect company 19?
The 21-year EBITDA is 3.

79/5.

18/7.

75 billion, considering the company 19?
21-year EBITDA 32.

8% compound growth rate and entering the fourth quarter is expected to usher in the expected conversion, we give the company 2020 EV / EBITDA 20x?
23x, corresponding to a target price of 39.
10 yuan?
46.

46 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level.

Risk reminder: customers are slower to come to the counter than expected; financial costs of rapid expansion are under short-term pressure.

Longji shares (601012): expected to double the expansion of modules BIPV products worth looking forward to

Longji shares (601012): expected to double the expansion of modules BIPV products worth looking forward to
In 2020, Longji will make full efforts on the component side. With the support of 166 silicon wafers, batteries, and module capacity expansion, displacement will increase.The newly-developed BIPV business is expected to become a new growth pole and maintain the “overweight” rating.  Maintain the “overweight” rating.Maintain EPS 1 for 2019-2021.33, 2.19, 2.65 yuan forecast, maintain the target price of 35.47 yuan.  The three large-capacity production capacities continue to increase, supporting the development of the component side in 2020.The overall target of modules in 2020 is 20GW, which is expected to exceed 110% + in 2019, of which more than 15GW are new 166 modules.In order to achieve the goal, Longji’s silicon chip, battery chip, and module-side throughput are being fully expanded. According to calculations, 166 modules have better profitability and the component-side premium exceeds 0.05 yuan / W will significantly increase profitability.Judging from the current booking situation, in the first half of 2020, the scheduled volume of modules has reached 80% of production capacity, and sales are very good.The orientation of the single crystal silicon wafer shows the shape of the long-ring double-oligonucleotide. In 2019, as the single crystal PERC battery downstream of the single crystal silicon wafer will significantly increase the production capacity by more than 30GW, the defects of the single crystal silicon wafer are unavoidable.Judging from the first half of 2020, silicon wafers are still tight, and if supply and demand reverse, it may appear in Q3 of 2020.In the long run, the oligopoly maintains a gross profit margin of 25% and a net profit margin of 15% is also very reasonable.  Innovative development of BIPV business, new growth poles emerged.Based on the needs analysis of downstream customers, Longji decided to develop the BIPV market. First, it introduced products that replace the colored steel tile roofs of industrial plants. By combining modules and roof materials, it formed a new photovoltaic roof, which can be used on it (25 years +)It completely surpasses the color steel tile (10-15 years), and can re-invest through the power generation income (the roof power generation income can recover the investment of the single-level standard factory building). It is a very innovative product that attracts the attention of potential customers and is expected to become a newGrowth pole.  catalyst.Non-silicon costs continue to fall, and product expansion has grown significantly.  risk warning.International trade policy and exchange rate risks 夜来香体验网 in 2019.

View Source’s Annual Report (002841) Comment: Performance Meets Expected Operating Capital and Operating Efficiency Continuously Optimized

View Source’s Annual Report (002841) Comment: Performance Meets Expected Operating Capital and Operating Efficiency Continuously Optimized
Investment Highlights: The company’s performance is in line with expectations and its cash flow performance is outstanding.The company achieved revenue of 169 in 2018.8 billion, an annual increase of 56.28%; net profit attributable to mother 10.4.0 billion, an increase of 45 in ten years.32%; net profit after deduction to mother 9.400 million, an increase of 36 in ten years.13%; cash flow from operating activities17.8.3 billion, an increase of 94 in ten years.38%; expected average ROE34.10%, basically unchanged from 17 years.The company’s performance was in line with expectations.  The fourth quarter performance was in line with expectations.2018Q4 realized revenue 49.800 million, an annual increase of 46.30%, in line with expectations.Net profit attributable to mother 1.54 亿,单独Q4 净利润较Q2\Q3 少,是因为年底产生的费用(例如奖金)等所致,但是其同比增速保持在62.88%, a significant improvement over last year.  The board business has grown rapidly, and its structural optimization is obvious, which is expected to improve the gross profit margin.In 2018, the company’s display card replacement amount was 7,877.550,000 pieces, a year-on-year increase of 30%, the market share reached 35.02%, continuing to rank first in the industry, increasing its proportion by 6.73 units.Sector contributed 86.3 billion, an annual increase of 57.08%.Revenue accounts for 50.82%, basically the same as last year.The structure of the board business continued to be optimized, and the proportion of smart boards increased to 65%, compared with 47% in 17 years.However, the overall gross profit margin is still affected by component price increases, and the gross profit margin of the board business is 12.35%, a reduction of 0 every year.62 averages.We believe that the optimized product structure will increase the gross profit margin in the year when the component prices are reduced.  The education interactive tablet is solid overall, and the conference interactive tablet continues to grow rapidly.Smart interactive tablet total sales 56.150,000 units, contributing 63.200 million, divided into education and conferences.Sivo Education Tablet continues to maintain the number one position in the industry, with a market share of 36.5%, an average increase of 1 percentage point; education tablet income is about 56.7.6 billion, an increase of 36 in ten years.02%.In terms of conference tablet, the overall market competitiveness is 25.40,000 units, the company brand maxhub market share of 25.4%, contributing 6.4.7 billion, doubled previously.Overall interaction plate gross margin 30.50%, increase by 2 every year.42 units.  The working capital performance is excellent, and the company’s bargaining power in the industry chain continues to increase.As of the end of the reporting 北京桑拿洗浴保健 period, the company had 1 billion in accounts receivable and 200 million in bills receivable. The overall receivables decreased to the lowest since the 2017 interim report.Accounts payable and notes19.5.5 billion, an increase of 4 over the end of 17 years.3 billion.Accounts received in advance 6.800 million, an increase of 2 from the end of 17.4 billion.Working capital turnover 9.06, an increase of 0 from 17 years.25.R & D funding7.8.7 billion, accounting for 4%.64%, continue to maintain high R & D investment.  Adjust earnings forecast and maintain overweight rating.The company’s business is developing healthily, convertible bonds have been raised and listed, and future research and development expenses are abundant, which is optimistic about the company’s long-term growth.Net profit for 2019-2021 12.20, 16.81, 19.81 trillion, EPS is 1.86, 2.57 and 3.02 (The original net profit for 2019-2021 was 12.7.3 billion, 16.14 billion, 19.800 million, EPS is 1.94 yuan, 2.46 yuan, 3.01 yuan), corresponding to PE is 43, 31, 26 times.Adjust earnings forecast and maintain overweight rating.

Everbright Bank (601818) 2019 Interim Report Review: Pressure on Bad Deposits Grows Pressure

Everbright Bank (601818) 2019 Interim Report Review: Pressure on Bad Deposits Grows Pressure

Introduction to this report: The interim report slightly exceeded expectations, deposits continued to grow rapidly, and interest margins remained stable from the previous quarter, but asset quality was under pressure.

Maintain target price of 5.

12 yuan, corresponding to 19 years 0.

79 times PB, holding level.

Investment points: Investment advice: Interim report slightly exceeded market expectations.

Increase 19/20/21 net profit growth forecast to 10.

13% (+2.

77pc) / 9.

94% (+0.

10pc) / 8.

57% (new forecast), EPS0.

68 (-0.

01, due to the difference between actual value and forecast in 2018) / 0.

76 (+0.

00) / 0.

83 (new 四川耍耍网 forecast) yuan, BVPS6.

46/7.

15/7.

90 yuan, the current price corresponds to 5.

44/4.

86/4.

47 times PE, 0.

57/0.

52/0.

47 times PB.

Maintain target price of 5.

12 yuan, corresponding to 19 years 0.

79 times PB, holding level.

Performance overview: 19H1 return to net profit per mother +13.

1%, revenue +26.

6%, ROE (annualization) 12.

9%.

Defective rate 1.

57%, -2bp QoQ; provision coverage rate was 178%, -0QoQ.

7 only.

New understanding: optimization of defect structure and rapid growth of bad marginal pressure deposits.

Performance: 19H1 final deposits increased by 15% over the beginning of the year, and 4% higher than the final period in 19Q1.

The debt structure brought by the rapid growth of deposits has optimised the proportion of final deposits in total debt in 19H1.9 to 68.

6%, an increase of 72% for time deposits.

The interest margin is stable from the previous quarter.

The 19H1 spread (daily average) was flat at 2 MoM.

28%, the asset-side and debt-side interest rates fell simultaneously, in line with industry trends.

The interest rate on the resistance side is gradually reduced to the background of the asset side, and it is expected that the future net interest margin will slowly decline.

Badness is under pressure.

The late 19H1 NPL ratio was -2bp month-on-month, and the concern rate was 11-11bps from the end of 18 years, but the overdue rate was 18 + 23bps from the end of 18 years. The NPL ratio decreased, the average chain ratio rose, and asset quality was under pressure.

19Q2 nuclear sales increased, resulting in loan-to-loan ratio of -5bp.

Longji shares (601012): Performance growth is bright, convertible bonds escort growth

Longji shares (601012): Performance growth is bright, convertible bonds escort growth
Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019: January to September realized operating income of 226.90,000 yuan, an increase of 54 in ten years.7%; net profit attributable to mother 34.80,000 yuan, an increase of 106 in ten years.0%, net profit after returning to mother after deduction of 34.1 ppm, an increase of 114 in ten years.6%. Demand for silicon wafers continued to boom, and the company’s third-quarter performance growth rate was dazzling. The company’s Q3 single-quarter revenue reached 85.80,000 yuan, an increase of 83 in ten years.8%, net profit attributable to mother 14.70,000 yuan, an increase of 283 in ten years.9%.The growth rate of the company’s performance is dazzling, initially: 1) The wafer end is profitable, and the revenue of Q3 wafers is about 35.300 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 122%, the gross profit margin increased to about 32%, benefiting from the continued tight supply and demand in the monocrystalline silicon wafer market, the company’s silicon wafer prices are firm, replacing the second phase of Yunnan’s production capacity climbing and non-silicon costs,The volume of silicon wafer business achieved both volume and profit; 2) The growth of the module side was steady, with Q3 modules achieving revenue of approximately US $ 2.8 billion, an annual increase of 12% and a gross profit margin of approximately 23%.Affected by the late start of the domestic photovoltaic installation market this year, module prices improved in the third quarter.We believe that it is expected to gradually achieve the peak expansion of domestic photovoltaic installations and continue to expand overseas markets. The fierce market demand will support the monocrystalline wafer prices to continue to be firm, the component prices to stabilize and recover, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to maintain a steady growth trend. Profitability has steadily improved, 杭州桑拿 cash flow has continued to improve, and companies with outstanding fee control capabilities have a gross profit margin of 29 in Q3 2019.9% (ten years +8.6pct, ring than +1.9pct), and profitability has steadily improved.Operating cash flow continued to improve, and net cash inflow from operating activities in the third quarter.900 million US dollars, the proportion of invoices receivable exceeded all the construction decline, reflecting the company’s good cash management and operating efficiency. 2019Q3 three rates total 7.5% (twice -2.9pct), excellent fee control.Single quarter selling expense ratio 3.3% (year -1.6pct), management expense ratio 2.9% (decade -0.5pct), R & D expense ratio is 0.9% (decade -0.3pct), financial expense ratio is 0.4% (one year-0.4pct). The convertible bonds escorted the production capacity layout, and the single crystal leader continued to grow rapidly. The company plans to publicly issue convertible bonds of US $ 5 billion for investment and construction of Yinchuan’s 15GW monocrystalline silicon rods, wafers and Xi’an 5GW monocrystalline battery projects.The company initially announced that it will complete the production capacity layout of 65GW silicon wafers, 20GW battery cells and 30GW modules by the end of 2021. It will complete the silicon wafer expansion plan by one year to the end of 2020 in the interim period, highlighting the company’s capacity expansion and future operations.Confidence and determination.In terms of market, the company has gradually completed the channel construction and layout of the overseas component market. The single-crystal penetration at the wafer end is obvious, and the market demand is hot. As a single-crystal leader, the company is expected to continue to absorb the high photovoltaic business cycle and high performance growth is expected. Profit forecast and investment recommendationsThe EPS in 2021 will be 1.32 yuan, 1.72 yuan, 2.27 yuan, corresponding to 17 for PE.3 times, 13.3 times, 10.1 times.Maintain the company’s “Buy” rating. Risk warning: The photovoltaic market is less than expected; capacity release is less than expected.

Aojiahua (002614): High-growth domestic market is expected to form a matrix of independent brands

Aojiahua (002614): High-growth domestic market is expected to form a matrix of independent brands

The global massage chair leader multiplied by the domestic market’s Dongfeng, for the first time covered the company that received the “strong recommendation” rating for resetting its own brand + ODM two-wheel drive massage device industry leader.

We believe that under the background of population aging and consumption upgrade, through the effective education of mass consumers through shared 深圳桑拿网 massage, China’s massage healthcare industry is about to usher in a golden period of accelerated penetration.

The company focuses on the “massage chair + AI” strategy, with outstanding technology and product power, the formation of an independent brand matrix, and the domestic market is expected to gain accelerated growth.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 5, respectively.

63/7.

33/9.

60 ppm, corresponding EPS is 1.

00/1.

31/1.

71 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE for 2019-2021 is 17/13/10 times.

Covered for the first time and given a “strong recommendation” rating.

Aging is driven by the need for supplementary health, and the penetration rate of the domestic massage chair industry is expected to usher in accelerated population aging. The problem of aging of the population is increasing, and the sub-health status of the young and middle-aged population is increasing, driving the rapid growth of the market demand for massage health equipment.To promote mass consumer education, China has gradually upgraded from a global massage chair production base to a new growth pole for the massage chair consumer market.

At present, the size of China’s massage equipment market is only US $ 12 billion, and the home massage chair retention rate is less than 1%. By benchmarking against the 10% level of mature markets in Japan and South Korea, the increase in the penetration rate of the domestic market will bring broad growth space.

In the era of mass consumption, the growth rate of the massage chair industry is expected to remain above 20%, and the market size of 100 billion yuan is expected.

Aojiahua: Improved product competitive advantages, the formation of an independent brand matrix, and high growth in the domestic market. The company is deeply cultivating the field of massage equipment. Through “overseas mergers and acquisitions + self-establishment”, it has formed the global layout of five independent brands, and gradually established technology, brands and channels.And other multiple competitive advantages.

The company focuses on the “Massage Chair + AI” strategy, leading the research and development of technologies such as “4D warm-sensing massage movement” and intelligent soreness detection; the independent brand Aojiahua is positioned in the Asian high-end market, and the star product “Imperial Warming Master Chair” replaces intergenerational competitionIts advantages have been well received by the market since its listing. In 2019, it will be used with a second brand to further explore the rapidly evolving mid-to-low-end market.

In the future, the company’s reorganization relies on ODM’s deep accumulation and solid overseas, and cooperates with BJSC to explore multiple new markets such as South Korea; gradually improve the domestic brand matrix to develop 杭州桑拿网 domestic sales, transform the star consumer products into the mass consumer market, and achieve sustained high growth in the domestic market.The leading advantages of the industry have gradually been further consolidated.

Risk reminder: The penetration rate of domestic massage chairs is lower than expected, exchange rate risks, etc.

Huaxi Bio (688363): The C king of hyaluronic acid raw materials siege the city step by step

Huaxi Bio (688363): The C king of hyaluronic acid raw materials siege the city step by step

This article starts from the different characteristics of the 2B2C, 2C market and the company’s traditional 2B market, and analyzes in depth how the company uses its own raw material supplier endowment and responds to the challenges of market conversion. We believe that the company, as an enterprise with an integrated industrial chain, has highly integrated technological achievements.

The company uses hyaluronic acid as the main line to extend its upstream and downstream layout, and has huge growth potential under the advantages of technology + cost + industrial integration.

The company is the global market leader in hyaluronic acid raw materials. The actual controller of the company is Ms. Zhao Yan, chairman and general manager, holding 65 shares.

9%.

The company’s business is divided into hyaluronic acid raw materials 南宁桑拿 (accounting for 51.

6%), functional skincare products (23%).

0%) and medical end products (proportion 24.

8%), and led by skin care products and medical terminal products to achieve revenue and net profit for 18 years.

600 million and 4.

200 million, the previous growth rate was 54.

4% and 90%.

7%. In the future, we will continue to maintain the growth momentum driven by the cost advantage + R & D results.

Raw materials business: global market leader, cost, qualification, and three major barriers to channels are solid.

The B-end market is the company’s traditional business area. The B-end market is only a more meaningful value for customers than a brand. It has the characteristics of sticky channels and internal barriers (mainly referring to medical products). The company is a market leader (18-year market share 36%), Give full play to costs, qualifications and channel advantages to stabilize market share.

① Cost advantage: The company took the lead in developing the fermentation method instead of the extraction method to produce hyaluronic acid, and currently it has gradually reached the industry leader of 10-13g / L. The unit cost of hyaluronic acid production is about one-half of the industry average cost.

The unit price of companies in the same grade of raw material products has declined, and certain significant price advantages in the same industry, especially overseas companies.

② Qualification barriers: The product quality is far higher than the European Pharmacopoeia, Japanese Pharmacopoeia and Chinese pharmaceutical quality standards. Pharmaceutical grade raw material products have obtained 7 registration qualifications in China, and have obtained international registration qualifications including the European Union, the United States, and South Korea. 21Items, more comprehensive than peer qualifications.

Countries have strict standards for market access to pharmaceutical-grade raw materials, and foreign competitors want to enter the market where it is difficult.

③Channel barriers: The company has distribution channels in the pharmaceutical, cosmetics, food and other industries in 40 countries and regions around the world. There are more than 1,000 customers worldwide, and the relationship with customers is solid, and it has the first-mover advantage.

Channel B customers have sticky cracks and low channel maintenance costs. Large pharmaceutical and cosmetic companies usually do not randomly change suppliers to establish channel barriers in order to ensure stable product quality.

  Medical terminal products: There is still room for improvement in market share, and low price + technology grabs market share.

The 2B2C market has both B and C-end market characteristics, high barriers to expansion, and stable internal market integration, which can provide customers with more brand and product experiences.

The competition that the company faced entered earlier, the brands merged, and the channels expanded comprehensively, but there was still room for breakthroughs in technology and prices.

Combining its own raw material business and industry development trends, the company uses low-cost + technology to seize consumers’ minds.

① Skin products: The company’s “gradient 3D cross-linking technology” can obtain gels with different properties by using a small amount of cross-linking agents, which is synchronized with the international advanced level. The price under the leading technology is 1,000-2500 yuan per milliliter in the mass price range.The company’s market share is expected to make a breakthrough in the industry’s popularization trend.

② Orthopedic products: The company developed the terminal moist heat sterilization technology to create the only sodium hyaluronate injection that is higher than the national standard. At the same time, it uses its own raw material advantages to cut into the market at a low price. With the promotion of terminal channels, the difference in power has continued to narrow.The market share of sodium hyaluronate has gone from zero.

6% increased to 9.

1%, the future is vast.

Functional skin care products: There are four major advantages in entering the raw material supplier status, and the strength of brand marketing is outstanding to resolve challenges.

The product cycle in the C-end market is shorter, and customer demand changes again.

The layout of the C-side of the raw material supplier usually has only technical and cost advantages, but it usually faces challenges in brand operation and marketing.

The company makes full use of its endowments to select high-quality tracks, exert its technological advantages, and continue to exert its strength in terms of brands and channels, and there is room for future development.

Ratings with traditional skin care products manufacturers: 1) The track is better: the company cuts from its own outstanding raw materials to avoid the mass skin care market, and relatively focuses on the high-end products of original liquids replaced by competing products.Enter the minds of consumers with distinctive features.

2) More focused ingredients: purposeful replacement of the company’s products, the formula ingredients are simple and straightforward.

With the rise of skin care ingredients, the formulation of skin care products that are gentle and direct will become more popular.

3) More cutting-edge technology: The company used microbial enzymatic digestion for the first time to produce low-molecular-weight hyaluronic acid and oligomeric hyaluronic acid on a large scale in the world, and was the first to merge the leading industry of hyaluronic acid products, while grafting pharmaceutical-scale production technology to cosmeticsIn production, the production standard is much higher than that of ordinary cosmetics manufacturers in the industry.

4) Industry chain synergy: The brand power and word-of-mouth of upstream raw material business transform the downstream product sales into an axial driving role. The success of downstream products will also promote the promotion of upstream raw material business.

Horizontal similar products also work together.  Expansion of categories + capacity expansion, a wide range of incremental space can be expected: 1) Relying on the R & D platform layout, the product line extends horizontally and vertically: the company ‘s four core technologies that have matured horizontally have derived more new technologies, and the company reserves “genetic engineeringPlatform “,” enzyme synthesis platform “and other new research and development directions; initially relying on the upper-level technology platform to rapidly shape end products, the company will have 4 functional skin care products, 6 injections of sodium hyaluronate gel products, 2 in the next three years.Food grade products, 1 medical sponge project to promote landing.

Many biologically active substances are expected to be further applied in end products.

2) The throughput is close to expected, and the Tianjin + Industrial Park project is expected to boost performance in the future.

The company’s overall main business capacity is close to saturation. The layout of Huaxi Tianjin Sodium Hyaluronate and related projects and the Huaxi Biological Life and Health Industrial Park project will increase the production capacity of hyaluronic acid raw materials by 952 tons / year after the completion of the Tianjin project, which is the original capacity.At 476%, the production capacity of added secondary throwing stock solution is 200 million pieces per year, and the production capacity of hyaluronic acid eyewash solution is 10 million pieces per year.

The industrial park project will mainly add 100 million medical injection products per year, which is 2500% of the original production capacity, and 500 million new products of hyaluronic acid sub-polishing products per year.

According to the prospectus, it is expected that the company’s production capacity will gradually be released in 2020 to boost performance.

  Investment advice: The company ‘s traditional hyaluronic acid raw material business relies on cost, qualification and channel barriers are steadily solid, medical terminal product business breaks through leading technology and reasonable prices to quickly seize market share, and functional skin care business is transformed according to traditional skin care manufacturers and otherThe advantages of raw material suppliers are prominent, and the company’s core technology is continuously expanded to drive the downstream product line to be rich, with great potential for future development.

We expect the company’s revenue growth from 2019 to 2021 to be 28.

5%, 38.

3%, 35.

4%, net profit growth rate was 35.

0%, 39.

3%, 37.

9%, outstanding growth.

The relative estimation law gives the company an estimate of 45-50 times, and the corresponding price range is 53.

1-59.

0 yuan / share, the company’s price range obtained by the absolute estimation method is 52.

8-70.

5 yuan / share, the company’s price range is 53.

1-59.

0 yuan / share.

Risk reminders: new technology replacement risk; dealer management risk; industry supervision risk; raised fund investment project implementation risk, etc.